Strategic Foresight in Business
Routledge – 2013 – 288 pages
What is strategic foresight and why does it matter? What role does hindsight play in it? Why are individuals, organizations and societies continually surprised by un-foreseen events? The purpose of this research monograph is to deepen understanding of the role that hindsight plays in strategic foresight. By doing so, the intention of the book is to offer some insights into strategic foresight failures.
Drawing on received research in strategy, psychology, philosophy and history, the role of counter-to-factual reasoning as a heuristic device is discussed and analysed as a way of rediscovering the complexity of the past. The judicious use of such a heuristic device as counterfactual reasoning, both as a sense-making process and as a strategic planning analytical framework, the book concludes, is a process for re-discovering the past, identifying the driving forces underpinning the emergence of startling patterns and fortifying strategic foresight processes.
'This fascinating book provides an excellent synthesis of the interdisciplinary research undertaken in the subject area of strategic foresight. It clearly fills a gap in the strategic management literature and provides strategy and policy makers with new insights in dealing with the uncertainty of the future'. Dr Laura A Costanzo, University of Surrey, UK.
1. What is strategic foresight and does it matter? 2. Strategic foresight and management science 3. Strategy Process and Reality 4. Flaws in strategic foresight: Creeping Determinism and the Hindsight Bias in Strategic Sensemaking 5. Counterfactual Reasoning 6. Counterfactual History 7. Discussion and Conclusion: Towards a theory of Historical-Foresight