Preparing for the Next Asia-Pacific War
Defence Planning in the Twenty-First Century
To Be Published March 31st 2014 by Routledge
Predicting the impact of China's rise on East Asia is especially difficult for defence planners, whose work is always concenrned with assessing strategic risk, deciding which risks are more likely than others, and designing the structure of forces to deal with potential threats, where the forces thus designed can fix the shape of regional defence for years to come. This book analyses the defence policy statements of three key Asia Pacific powers - the United States, Australia and New Zealand - and shows how uncertainty about the rise of China has influenced current defence planning decisions, and how thinking about the strategic risks associated with China have changed over time. Key issues covered include the difference in approach by the three countries, the degree to which strategic risk emanates from China directly or indirectly from China's wider impact on the region, the consequences for Japan of China's rise, and an assessment of whether the defence planning responses are commesurate with the real degree of risk.
1. Introduction: Capability Planning for the Rise of China 2. Four Ways of Managing Uncertainty in Defence Planning 3. Rearmament Planning 4. Threat-based Planning 5. Portfolio-based Planning 6. Task-based Planning 7. Preparing for China’s Rise 8. Conclusions and Policy Recommendations
Stephan Fruhling is a Lecturer in the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, School of International, Political and Strategic Studies at the Australian National University