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The New Triple Constraints for Sustainable Projects, Programs, and Portfolios

By Gregory T. Haugan

Auerbach Publications – 2012 – 420 pages

Purchasing Options:

  • Add to CartHardback: $73.95
    978-1-46-650518-6
    July 20th 2012

Description

The ongoing changes in population, climate, and the availability of energy have resulted in unprecedented threats and opportunities that all project and program managers, portfolio managers, and public planners need to be aware of. The New Triple Constraints for Sustainable Projects, Programs, and Portfolios offers a clear look at how these constraints will impact project undertakings and overlay the current classic constraints of cost, schedule, and performance.

The book provides current facts and information on population, climate change, and energy issues—identifying trends and outlining opportunities in the form of a set of overlays (summary conclusions). The overlays are indexed to current changes that collectively represent a major turning point in the way we use resources and our growing need to seek sustainability. Identifying how changes in the new triple constraints will impact long-range planning, the book:

  • Explains the rationale behind population forecasts and the likely impact on global supply and demand
  • Highlights emerging trends in global temperatures and sea level rise, and the impacts on ecology, biology, and the marine environment without political spin
  • Includes SWOT analyses of fossil fuels, nuclear fuel, and renewable fuels to assist in planning programs that depends upon these energy sources
  • Provides expert estimates and forecasts of energy availability and alternatives
  • Discusses the risks of various energy options
  • Contains supporting Appendices and a comprehensive Bibliography

Most program life cycles last five to ten years, and infrastructure programs last 40 to 50 years; the text provides a rational basis for approaching the new problems that all program and portfolio managers will soon have to deal with. It will help you identify and recognize these current and projected circumstances and risks so you will understand and be prepared to make the most of the major changes impacting the upcoming decision environment.

Contents

Sustainability Overlay Concept and Structure

Overlay Zoning Analogy

Overlay Criteria

1. Purpose

2. Applicability

3. Specific Rules

PCE Breakdown Structure

Summary for Policymakers: PCE Overlay

Overview

Content Analysis of the Population, Climate Change, and Energy (PCE) Overlay

Overlay Scenarios

Overlay Summary

Policies to Complement the PCE Overlay

Government Policies

General Government Policies

World Policies

Private Sector Policies

Investment Policies Considering Climate Change

Program Policies

POPULATION OVERLAY

Population Constraint Overlay: Introduction

Introduction to Demography

Thomas Robert Malthus

Socialism

Demographic Transition Stages

Immigration and Migration

World Population

World Population Growth

Demographic Transitions

Health and Mortality Transition

Fertility Transition

Population Trends

Regional Differences

United States Population

Overview of U.S. Population and Projections

Hispanic Population

Racial Diversity in the United States

United States in 2050

World Age Distribution and Sustainability

Age Distributions

Sustainability: Carrying Capacity

Population Policies and Dilemmas

Population Issues and Dilemmas

Population Policies

CLIMATE CHANGE OVERLAY

Climate Change Constraint Overlay

Introduction

Definitions

History and Background of the Science

Years 1824 to 1957

Keeling Curve: 1958

Climate Manifestations

Greenhouse Effect

Svante Arrhenius Revisited

Energy Balance

Carbon Cycle

Historic CO2 Levels

CO2/Temperature Sensitivity

The Sun

Milankovich Cycles

Sunspots and Solar Flares

Solar Insolation: Amount of Sunlight

Oceans

Role of the Oceans

Temperature and Heat Content

Chemistry of the Oceans

Temperature

Global Temperature Data

Forecast Temperatures

Temperature Patterns

Temperature Extremes

United States Temperatures

Cryosphere: The Arctic and the Antarctic

Arctic

Importance of the Arctic

Arctic Warming

Permafrost

Arctic Ocean

Ice Extent and Volume

History of Sea Ice Melt

Arctic Oil Resources

Arctic Ocean Highways

Greenland

Interest in Greenland

Temperatures in Greenland

Greenland Ice Loss

Antarctica

East Antarctica

West Antarctica

Pine Island

Causes of Melting

Glaciers and Ice Sheets

Climate Change Overlays

Indicators of a Warming World

Sea Levels

Atmosphere: Weather Events

Precipitation

Storms

Arctic Linkages to Storms

Droughts

Ecosystem Impacts

Planning for a Different Future: An Overlay of Adaptation and Mitigation

Tragedy of the Commons

Planning for a Warming Future: Mitigation of CO2 Emissions

International Actions

Actions Required to Meet Mitigation Objectives

IPCC Mitigation Solutions

Stabilization Wedges

Other Emissions Mitigation Alternatives

Planning for a Warming Future: Adaptation

Adaptation Activities and Planning

Adaptation in the United States

Adaptive Capacity and Response

Climate Policy: Both Mitigation and Adaptation

Adaptation and Mitigation Interrelationships

Mitigation and Adaptation Portfolios

Costs versus Benefits

Climate Change Denial

ENERGY OVERLAY

Energy Constraint Overlay

Introduction to Energy

SWOT Analyses

Coal

Formation and Discovery

SWOT Analysis: Coal

Strengths

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

Liquid Fuels

Formation and Discovery

Production and Forecast

SWOT Analysis: Oil Industry

Strengths

Weaknesses

Peak Oil

Oil Prices

Synthesis of Weakness

Opportunities

Threats

Natural Gas

Formation and Discovery

Natural Gas Usage

Shale Gas

SWOT Analysis: Natural Gas Industry

Strengths

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Clathrates: Methane Hydrate

Combined Cycle Gas Turbine Technology

Threats

Nuclear Energy

History and Background

SWOT Analysis—Nuclear Energy

Renewable Energy Sources

Introduction

Overview

Solar Power

The Sun

Solar Technologies

Solar—Photovoltaic Systems

Concentrating Solar Power Systems: Thermal

SWOT Analysis: Solar Power

Wind Energy

Overview

SWOT Analysis: Wind Power

Geothermal Energy

Formation and Discovery

SWOT Analysis: Geothermal Energy

Lack of Available and Reliable Resource Information

High Exploration Risks and High Up-Front Costs

Siting, Leasing, and Permitting Issues

High Local Impact on the Environment

Access to Transmission Infrastructure

Absence of National Policy

Opportunities

Threats

Biomass Energy

Overview

Biomass

Biofuels

SWOT Analysis—Biomass

Hydropower Systems

Basic Hydroelectric Systems

Other Hydropower Systems

Tide Energy Systems

Wave Energy Systems

Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC)

Entropy Systems

SWOT Analysis—Hydropower

Strengths

Weaknesses

Ecosystem Damage and Loss of Land

Flow Shortage

Methane Emissions (from Reservoirs)

Population Relocation

Failure Hazard

Construction Costs and Schedules

Opportunities

Threats

Renewable Energy Sources Summary

Renewables Overview

U.S. Renewables

Program Planning in an Energy Constrained and Uncertain World

Introduction

Transportation Energy Sector

Energy General Sector

SUPPORTING APPENDICES

Appendix A: The Scientific Community Positions on Climate Change and Global Warming

Group 1: Renowned Scientific Organizations and Their Conclusions on Climate Change

Group 2: Other Scientific Society Components of the Consensus Position

National Science Academies of the G8+5 Nations (Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, Italy, India, Japan, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, the United Kingdom, and the United States)

Ecological Society of America

American Physical Society

International Council of Academies of Engineering and Technological Sciences (CAETS)

Network of African Science Academies

European Physical Society

European Science Foundation Position Paper

Federation of Australian Scientific and Technological Societies Policy Statement

European Federation of Geologists Position Paper

Geological Society of Australia Position Statement

International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) Resolution

Royal Meteorological Society (UK)

American Public Health Association Policy Statement

Australian Medical Association

Group 3: Faith-Based Organizations Supporting the Consensus Position

Pontifical Academy of Sciences, Vatican, Rome, May 11, 2011

Society of Friends Statement on Global Climate Change

American Baptist Churches

Unitarian Universalist Association of Congregations

Threat of Global Warming/Climate Change

General Board of the United Methodist Church

Advocacy Focus Issues: Climate Change

Central Conference of American Rabbis

Other Faith-Based Statements

Appendix B: Statistical Inference

Appendix C: Risk Management

Introduction

Definitions

Risk Management Process

Risk Identification

Risk Assessment

Developing a Risk Response

Risk Control

Appendix D: Geology and Climate Change

Geology Society of London Position Statement

Bibliography

Acronyms and Abbreviations

Glossary

Author Bio

Gregory T. Haugan, PhD, PMP, is the owner of GLH Incorporated specializing in project management support for both U.S. and international organizations. He has over 40 years’ experience as a consultant and as a government and private sector official in the planning, scheduling, management and operation of projects of all sizes; and in the development and implementation of program management information systems.

Dr. Haugan has led courses for the Rappahannock Institute for Lifeline Learning, RILL. They included: Development of Human Societies: Lessons for the Northern Neck of Virginia with major emphasis on current problems with potential shortages in energy and water resources. This was followed by: Oil, Energy and Global Warming. It recognized the indivisibility of the topics, presented current theories and discussed the relationship to the Northern Neck of Virginia and what actions were warranted. In addition he has presented two courses on Climate Change and Global Warming addressing the issues of the science, the impact and the mitigation actions which addresses the various claims and theories with regard to global warming phenomena and its current and projected impact on our lives. His interest and knowledge in these areas led to the current book.

He has written five project management books published by Management Concepts, Inc. of Vienna, VA. "Effective Work Breakdown Structures" published in 2002; "Project Planning and Scheduling" also published in 2002; and "The Work Breakdown Structure in Government Contracting" published in 2003 and "Project Management Fundamentals" was published in 2006 and the Second Edition was published in late 2010. Two of the books have been translated into Japanese and Chinese.

He and his wife currently live in Heathsville, Virginia. For recreation he hiked the 100 mile West Highland Way trail in Scotland in 2006, the year before climbed Mt. Whitney in California. Also the year before that he hiked the Lolo Trail in Idaho, which followed the Inca Trail in Peru, and the Chilkoot Trail in Alaska. In 2010 he hiked trails in Tuscany between mountain villages. He is a former member of the U. S. Triathlon Team and competed in the world championships in Wellington, New Zealand in 1994. Dr. Haugan received his PhD from the American University, his MBA from St. Louis University, and his BSME from the Illinois Institute of Technology. Further information is available at www.pmhaugan.com.

Name: The New Triple Constraints for Sustainable Projects, Programs, and Portfolios (Hardback)Auerbach Publications 
Description: By Gregory T. Haugan. The ongoing changes in population, climate, and the availability of energy have resulted in unprecedented threats and opportunities that all project and program managers, portfolio managers, and public planners need to be aware of. The New Triple...
Categories: Public Administration & Management, Engineering Project Management